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Recession be Associated with Deflation or Inflation i. As I put it at that time last January: This rise in inflation together with the now unavoidable US recession, the risk of a recession in a number of other economies especially in Europe and the likelihood of a sharp global economic slowdown has lead to concerns that the risks of stagflation may be rising.

Should we thus worry about US and global stagflation? This note will argue that such worries are not warranted as a US hard landing followed by a global economic slowdown represents a negative global demand shock that will lead to lower global growth and lower global inflation. To get stagflation one needs a large negative global supply-side shock that, as argued below, is not likely to occur in the near future.

Thus the coming US recession and global economic slowdown will be accompanied by a reduction — rather than an increase — in inflationary pressures.

As in inflation may become the last of the worries of the Fed and one may actually start hearing again concerns about global deflation rather than inflation.

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Let me elaborate next why… …unlike a true negative supply side shock — that reduces growth while Pest anaylsis boost juice inflation — a US recession followed by a global economic slowdown is a negative demand shock that has the effect of reducing US and global growth while at the same time reducing US and global inflationary pressures.

Specifically such a negative demand shock will reduce inflation and across the world because of a variety of channels. First, a US hard landing will lead to a reduction in aggregate demand relative to the aggregate supply as Pest anaylsis boost juice glut of housing, consumer durables, autos and, soon enough, other goods and service takes places.

Such reduction in aggregate demand tends to reduce inflationary pressures as firms lose pricing power and then to cut prices to stave off the fall in demand and the rising stock of inventories of unsold goods.

These deflationary pressures are already clear in housing where prices as falling and in the auto sector where the glut of automobiles is leading to price discounts and other price incentives.

Obviously, inflation tends to fall in recession led by a fall in aggregate demand. Second, during US recessions you observe a significant slack in labor markets: Third, the same slack of aggregate demand and slack in labor markets will occur around the world as long as the negative US demand shock is transmitted — through trade, financial, exchange rate and confidence channels — to other countries leading to a slowdown in growth in other countries the recoupling rather than decoupling phenomenon.

The reduction in global aggregate demand — relative to the global supply of goods and service — will lead to a reduction in inflationary pressures.

Fourth, during any US hard landing and global economic slowdown driven by a negative demand shock the US and global demand for oil, gas, energy and other commodities tends to fall leading to a sharp fall in the price of all commodities.

A US hard landing followed by a European, Chinese and Asian slowdown will lead to a much lower demand for commodities pushing down their price. The fall in prices tends to be sharp because — in the short run — the supply of commodities tends to be inelastic; thus any fall in demand leads to a greater fall in price — given an inelastic supply curve — to clear the commodity prices.

And indeed in recent weeks the rising probability of a US hard landing has already lead to a fall in such prices: Similar downward pressure in prices is now starting to show up in other commodities. Note that a cyclical drop in commodity prices — led by a US hard landing and global economic slowdown — does not mean that commodity prices will remained depressed over the middle term once this global growth slowdown is past.

If in the medium term the supply response to high prices is modest while the medium-long term demand for commodities remains high once the US and global economy return to their potential growth rates commodity prices could indeed resume their upward trend.

But in a cyclical horizon of 12 to 18 months a US hard landing and global economic slowdown would lead to a sharp fall in commodity prices. Note that even in the case of oil that is the commodity with the weakest supply response to prices — as the investments in new production in a bunch of unstable petro-states Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and even Russia are limited — a cyclical global slowdown could lead to a very sharp fall in oil prices.

The four factors discussed above suggest that — conditional on the negative global demand shock US hard landing and global economic slowdown materializing even the risks of stagflation-lite are exaggerated; rather US and global inflationary force would sharply diminish in this scenario and, if anything, concerns about deflation may reemerge again.

This is not a far fetched scenario as one looks back at what happened in the cycle. Until the Fed was worried about the economy overheating and rising inflation risk.We booked a 7 day climbing trip with 2 persons just one day before we arrived in Tanzania - Moshi with MEM tours and they arranged a perfect week for us!

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The present study was undertaken to estimate the past growth trend in production and export of Kinnow and to forecast the production and export of Kinnow.

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